By the midpoint of the century, more than a quarter of the Chinese population will be over 65. And it will be at this point in time (if not sooner) that young adults will face an unprecedented burden of care — what's been dubbed the 4-2-1 problem. -- George Dvorsky
4-2-1:
A Smaller Young Population to Care for a Growing Older Population
The 4-2-1 problem surrounding the one-child policy means that only children will have to bear the responsibility of supporting both of their parents and, sometimes, all four of their grandparents in their old age, as they cannot rely on siblings to help them care for their aging family. Not just in China, but worldwide, due to technological advancements and improved healthcare, people are living longer and therefore the size of the aging population is growing (Dvorsky). The size of China’s population aged sixty and above will grow by “100 million in just 15 years (from 200 million in 2015 to over 300 million by 2030)” (Wang). This augmentation in the number of elderly people will lead to an “increasing demand for services and expenditures related to health care,” the costs of which will fall upon China’s only children (Wang). With one child providing for six other people in addition to him or her and their families, the financial burden will be demanding. The one-child policy has created a situation in China in which there are too few young people to support a growing, aging population.
Another problem created by the policy is that if an only child dies before his or her parents and grandparents, there will be no one to support them in their old age. The chance that an eighty year old Chinese man will outlive his 55-year-old son is 6%, and the likelihood an eighty year old woman will outlive her 55-year-old son is 17%, as women live longer (Wang). Without a child to support them in their old age, parents and grandparents will have fewer resources to pay for expenditures like health care.
Another problem created by the policy is that if an only child dies before his or her parents and grandparents, there will be no one to support them in their old age. The chance that an eighty year old Chinese man will outlive his 55-year-old son is 6%, and the likelihood an eighty year old woman will outlive her 55-year-old son is 17%, as women live longer (Wang). Without a child to support them in their old age, parents and grandparents will have fewer resources to pay for expenditures like health care.
Copyright © 2013 by Alexa Tsintolas. All rights reserved.
